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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/24679

Title: 北宜直線鐵路經濟效益分析
Authors: 蕭再安;呂學麟;黃敏維
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Date: 2003
Issue Date: 2011-10-20T08:14:27Z
Publisher: 中華民國運輸學會第十八屆學術論文研討會
Abstract: 公共建設的經濟效益分析常遭逢 1.外部績效牽涉廣泛難以界定;2.衡量項目較多,評估結果的不確定性相對提高之問題。由於傳統分析模式只能提供一個「效益是否大於成本」但無任何機率表示之訊息,面對以上問題將難以作出決策判斷。因此本研究建立一個整合績效指數與信心指數的分析模式,使能同時求算此二種指數。其信心指數分析的機制係由專家對績效值進行信心程度的判斷,然後據以推算整體計畫評估指數之信心指數;而績效指數可以應用各種不同的績效組合求算,因此本模式可求算各種績效指數及其信心指數,供決策者依其偏好的評估指標或信心水準作雙重判斷。由於專家的主觀判斷會因人而異,因此重大公共建設的信心指數宜成立專家小組共同判斷,以降低個人主觀之差距。北宜直線鐵路計畫以本模式進行評估結果顯示,在折現率 8%時,本計畫僅第一項「鐵路基礎運量旅行時間節省效益」已達 B/C>1 水準,信心指數達 94%;以內部效益計則B/C=1.95、irr =13.3%、NPV=25,988 百萬元、信心指數達 89%,顯示本計畫僅以內部效益考量,亦有很高的投資效率而且很明確;至以總效益計,B/C = 6.16、irr =27.43%、NPV=141,582 百萬元,信心指數 54.6%,顯示本計畫外部效益極大,但不確定性較高。整體而言,本計畫具有相當明確的高投資效率,值得政府投資興建。而藉由本計畫實證應用顯示,本評估模式確可克服傳統模式之缺失,對於公共建設之經濟效益分析甚有助益。
The economic analysis of public construction is complicated since (1) measures of effectiveness are complex, and (2) uncertainty grows as the assessment items increase. If the evaluation only yields information of whether total benefit is greater than total cost without any probabilities, the decision may be difficult to be made. This research establishes an economic evaluation model that integrates confidence analysis with cost-benefit evaluation.The experts rate the confidence level of a project effectiveness. The overall confidence levels of evaluation indexes for the project is then computed. Also, the various evaluation indexes can be provided by computing the proposed combination of effectiveness. Therefore, the evaluation model can provide any confidence levels in accordance with the proposed evaluation indexes to the decision-maker. And the decision-maker may make decision based on both of his/her preferred evaluation index and confidence level. For the sake of there is a difference between expert’s subjective, it,s recommended that the confidence level of effectiveness for a public construction project should rated by a task-force of experts. The empirical study of The Teipei-Ilan Shortcut Railway Project found that under 8% discount rate, even the most confident benefit, “the timesaving value of basic railway travel demand”, is worth investment with a confidence level 94%. If all internal benefits are taken into account, the resulting B/C is 1.95, irr is 13.3%, and NPV is 25,988 millions with 89% confidence. If entire benefits are considered, then B/C is 6.16, irr is 27.43%, and NPV is 141,582 millions with a degraded confidence level 54.6%. The results indicate that the external benefit of the project is enormous with high uncertainty. In general, the benefit of the project is very high and definite. It is recommended that the government should implement the project.
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/handle/987654321/24679
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 演講及研討會

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