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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/17361

Title: 美國開放天空政策對亞太地區簽約國與非簽約國之航空客貨運量影響分析
The traffic impacts of US open skies agreements on Asia Pacific countries
Authors: Che-Hao Chang
張哲豪
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Transportation Science
國立臺灣海洋大學:運輸科學系
Keywords: 開放天空政策;重力模型;獨立樣本t檢定;運量
open skies policy;gravity model;Independent-Sample T Test;traffic
Date: 2009
Issue Date: 2011-07-04
Abstract: 鑑於美國與亞太地區各國緊密的合作關係,觀察世界經貿局勢發展、區域整合發展以及國際情勢的變化,探討影響美國與亞太地區各國民航客、貨運量需求的因素。本研究先將亞太地區各國運量發展現況加以概述,再針對亞太地區各國國籍航空及美國國籍航空簽約國航線,分析簽約前後運量是否因開放天空政策的簽署與否而有所差異,最後進而推估開放天空政策的有效與否。 同時本研究應用重力模型,透過文獻探討後選取國內生產毛額、人口數、消費者物價指數、失業率、匯率等總體經濟指標,並將經濟合作暨發展組織、語言、開放天空政策、經濟衰退、911事件等虛擬變數作為分析變數,探討影響美國與亞太地區各國民航客運、貨運需求的影響因素。本文研究期間為1990年至2008年,運量資料來自美國聯邦航空總署(Federal Aviation Administration,FAA)運輸統計局(Bureau of Transportation Statistics),變數資料來源為各國統計處。 研究內容分為兩部分,分為獨立樣本t檢定分析結果及重力模型分析。獨立樣本t檢定結果發現開放天空政策對於亞太各國國籍航空運量以及美國國籍航空的各亞太航線無顯著影響,甚至非簽約國航線運量成長率大於簽約國,如日本。重力模型結果發現相較於開放天空政策的影響,經濟的好壞對於美國與亞太地區國家間運量影響較為重大;兩國的距離在客運模型中顯著且係數值為負,貨運模型雖不顯著但係數值為負,顯示旅客對於距離遠近所延伸出機票價格的問題敏感度較高。
The US government began the so-called 「Open Skies Policy」in 1992, and enthusiastically searched for partners around the world, including the young and prosperous Asia-Pacific aviation markets. As we know aviation industry is a key indicator of global economics, the Asia-Pacific regions have demonstrated their successful development in the past few decades. Although recent global economic recession has done some substantial impact on these countries, it is believed that both economic and aviation market in the Asia-Pacific regions will soon recover from current downturn. Despite the economic cycle, this thesis focuses on the US Open Skies Policy within Asia-Pacific countries. The research is conducted to analyze whether the Open Skies Policy impacts the passenger and cargo volume or not. The methodology is based on the Statistics「Independent-Sample T Test」. Besides, there are still some factors influencing the passenger and cargo demand. A「Gravity Model」is used to analyze which macro-economics indicators and dummy variables influence the passenger and cargo volume most. The passenger and cargo data between 1990 and 2008 was collected from the US Department of Transportation website, and the macro-economics indicators came from census and statistics department of all samples. The result of Independent-Sample T Test shows Open Skies Policy impacting signatory countries on passenger and cargo. But some non-signatory countries still have cargo volumes on their routes. Besides, the result of the gravity model indicates that gross domestic product, population, exchange rate, unemployment, open skies agreement, 911 event and economic recession having impacts on the passenger and cargo markets. Distance between destinations shows negative impacts on passengers, which means passengers are more sensitive than freight.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M96680011
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/17361
Appears in Collections:[運輸科學系] 博碩士論文

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