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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/17288

Title: 兩岸三地船隊發展與成長趨勢之分析
Analyses of Fleet Developments and Growth Trends among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
Authors: Ying-Chen Hsu
徐穎珍
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Shipping and Transportation Management
國立臺灣海洋大學:航運管理學系
Keywords: 載重噸;運能;散裝船;貨櫃船;灰預測
Deadweight tonnage;Capacity;Bulk carrier;Containership;Grey prediction
Date: 2010
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T08:59:19Z
Abstract: 航運發展深受全球經濟景氣榮枯之影響。本文主要以德國航運物流與經濟研究中心(ISL)近年(1995-2009)資料,從船舶供給面著手,分析兩岸三地散裝與貨櫃船隊發展現況,並採用灰色理論(Grey theory)之灰預測GM(1,1)預測模式,經循還式殘差修正(Recursive residual)以提高精確度,分析兩岸三地散裝與貨櫃船隊成長趨勢,並藉指數平滑法進行精確度比較。研究結果如下: (一)在散裝船方面,近年全球與兩岸三地散裝船舶艘數與載重噸均呈現逐年遞增,且載重噸成長均高於艘數成長。就船舶設籍情況而言,除香港或因實施噸位稅有效吸引船舶回籍或入籍,目前出籍比率僅36.76%外,中國、臺灣與全球出籍比率均逐年攀升,其中以臺灣尤為顯著。就船齡而言,中國國輪、外輪以及香港外輪船齡均已超過全球平均值。以船噸發展趨勢而言,在未來經濟無極大變化之前提下,未來三年中國與臺灣散裝船噸將持續擴張,分別達到69,350千載重噸與20,132千載重噸,香港則會減少至11,579千載重噸。 (二)在貨櫃船方面,近年全球與兩岸三地貨櫃船舶艘數與運能均呈現逐年遞增,且運能成長均高於艘數成長。就船舶設籍情況而言,除香港或因實施噸位稅有效吸引船舶回籍或入籍,目前出籍比率僅8.55%外,中國、臺灣與全球出籍比率均逐年攀升,其中以臺灣尤為顯著。就船齡而言,兩岸三地貨櫃船齡均已高於全球平均值。以運能發展趨勢而言,在未來經濟無極大變化之前提下,中國與臺灣貨櫃船運能將持續擴張,分別達到971千TEUs與748千TEUs,香港則會減少至103千TEUs。 期望研究結果可以提供航運公司擬定營運策略,以及政府主管機關研擬航運政策之參考。
The development of shipping is deeply related to global economic prosperity or adversity. This study starts with the supply side of vessels by using the latest fifteen years statistics from the institute of shipping economics and logistics (ISL) to analyze current developments of bulk ship fleets and containership fleets among China, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the GM(1,1) Model of Grey theory is adopted to analyze growth trends of ship fleets, and the Recursive Residual GM(1,1) is also applied to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Finally, the accuracy is compared with exponential smoothing. The results show as below: 1.As to bulk carriers, the numbers and deadweight tonnages of vessels are increasing not only in the world, but also among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in the past few years. Second, the ratio of flagging-out is increasing in China, Taiwan and the world except for Hong Kong, where is advantaged by their tonnage tax, as the ratio is only 36.76%. Third, ship ages of national vessels in China and foreign vessels in both China and Hong Kong are higher than world average. Finally, the bulk tonnages will be enlarged in China to 69,350,000 DWT and Taiwan to 20,132,000 DWT, but reduced in Hong Kong to 11,579,000 DWT in terms of the growth trend in the coming three years on the premise that there is not a dynamic context of global economic. 2.As to containerships, the numbers and capacities of vessels are increasing not only in the world, but also among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan in the past few years. Second, the ratio of flagging-out is increasing in China, Taiwan and the world except for Hong Kong, where is advantaged by their tonnage tax, as the ratio is only 8.55%. Third, the containerships ages in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are higher than world average. Finally, the containership capacities will be enlarged in China to 971,000 TEUs and Taiwan to 748,000 TEUs, but reduced in Hong Kong to 103,000 TEUs in terms of the growth trend in the coming three years on the premise that there is not a dynamic context of global economic. These findings will assist shipping corporations in making operational strategies, and government authorities in formulating supportive shipping policies.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M97730026
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/17288
Appears in Collections:[航運管理學系] 博碩士論文

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