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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/17278

Title: 以Fuzzy Delphi與 DEMATEL應用於散裝航運論時傭船營運關鍵影響因素之認知分析
Analyses of Key Influence Factors of Timecharter Operations in the Dry Bulk Shipping Sector by the Application of Fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL
Authors: Yu-Yao Huang
黃鈺堯
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Shipping and Transportation Management
國立臺灣海洋大學:航運管理學系
Keywords: 傭船決策;論時傭船;模糊德菲法;決策實驗室法
chartering decision;time charter;fuzzy delphi;DEMATEL
Date: 2010
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T08:59:00Z
Abstract: 散裝航運市場具有高度不確定性與週期循環特性,傭船決策是營運管理最困難任務之一。論時傭船期間較長、船東面臨違約風險較大。2009年7月1日起波羅地海乾散貨運價指數(BDI)組成結構亦僅以論時傭船租金計算。於高度風險航運市場中,如何進行最適的論時傭船決策,俾能創造航運公司最大收益是重要課題。本文經文獻回顧與專家訪談,彙整散裝航運論時傭船營運關鍵影響因素,透過問卷調查方式,以專家決策模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi)探求關鍵影響因素之重要性,以決策實驗室法(DEMATEL)釐清各項關鍵影響因素間之因果關係。本文研究結果如下: 1.採用模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi)分析關鍵影響因素之重要性,散裝航運論時傭船營運整體評估準則最重要的影響因素為「當事人信譽名聲」,其次依序為「船速及其耗油量」、「危機處理的能力」、「航行貿易與限制」與「市場運價與預測」。 2.採用決策實驗室法(DEMATEL)分析關鍵影響因素之關聯性,總影響程度最重要的因素為「傭船期間之長短」,其次較為「租金與支付條件」與「當事人信譽名聲」。其中,最主要的影響因素為「當事人營運規模」,其次依序為「航行貿易與限制」、「除外貨載與轉租」;最主要被影響因素為「租金與支付條件」,其次為「交還船相關約定」與「當事人信譽名聲」。 本文研究結果可以作為散裝航運公司制定論時傭船決策之依據。
Due to the bulk shipping market is uncertain and risky, making chartering decision is one of the most difficult challenges of operation management. Generally, the charter period of timecharter is longer than voyagecharter, and the risk of breaching the contract which the shipowners face is higher than voyagecharer. Since 1 July 2009 the Baltic dry index (BDI) components only calculated by trip timecharter hire. The shipping market is under considerable risks, how to make the chartering decisions the most efficiency to make the profit of shipping companies maximum. Therefore, according to the results of literature reviews and in-depth interviews, this research concludes timecharter operations key influencial factors of bulk shipping, to discuss these factors by questionnaire. In order to understand the key influencial factors of timecharter operations, this research applied the method of Fuzzy Delphi Method to analyze the importance of key influencial factors of timecharter operations, and meanwhile, clarify the causal relationship among each influential factor by utilizing the decision making and trial evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). 1. Using Fuzzy Delphi analysis the importance of key factors, concerning the integral evaluation criteria, “Reputation” is valued the most, followed by “Speed and consumption”, “Crisis handling”, “Trading limits” and “Forecast of market price”. 2. Using DEMATEL analysis the relevance of key factors, concerning the integral criteria, “Chartering period” exerts the greatest effect on the overall influential degree, followed in descending order by “Payment condition” and “Reputation”. More specifically, the main influential factor is “Scale of operation”, and following are “Trading limits” and “Cargo exclusion and sub-let”. Additionally, the most crucial influenced factor is “Payment condition”, and the second and third among those being affected are “Delivery and redelivery” and “Reputation”. The results of this study can contribute to dry bulk corporations in making timechartering decisions.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M98730032
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/17278
Appears in Collections:[航運管理學系] 博碩士論文

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