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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/16083

Title: 賽局理論分析海上避碰行為之策略
Analyzing Strategies for Behaviors of Collision Avoidance at sea by Game Theory
Authors: Chi-Cheng Tsai
蔡奇呈
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Merchant Marine
國立臺灣海洋大學:商船學系所
Keywords: 動態賽局;避碰規則;船舶會遇;多船會遇
Dynamic game theory;COLREG;Two-vessel encounter;Multi-vessel encounter
Date: 2005
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T08:32:59Z
Abstract: 船舶會遇時,避碰行為之策略有賴於理性思考,據此,賽局理論實為一合適的分析工具;又此等策略的依據為國際海上避碰規則之規定,規則中各條款能否對於兩船會遇情勢,甚至多船會遇情勢,提供最適策略組合,使面對該情勢之當值航行員所採取的避碰行動無法偏離此最適解,即為本研究的動機與目的。 本研究以避碰規則為主軸,首先透過文獻回顧與本研究對該規則之理解,探究兩動力船舶於研究假設下相關援用條款以及其優先順序,以此說明避碰過程的四個階段。接續則利用賽局理論之動態賽局進行推論與分析,輔以本研究建構的建構動態風險值,求得兩船會遇與多船會遇之最適均衡解,以此詮釋避碰規則之意涵並解決其無法妥善處理多船會遇之缺憾。多船會遇部分建構的動態風險值,係以綜觀角度,經由各船之緊迫性與規則之指示來決定各船之行動順序,因而較各學者所提出方法更適合。由此等方法透過範例計算所得結果,不但呼應學者建議之避碰行動,且驗證了其適用性。再者,此等結果應能運用於船舶擁擠海域,提供管理者解決多船會遇問題之思維。
When vessels are encountered at sea, the strategy for collision avoidance is relied on the rational thinking; accordingly, game theory is usually considered as a suitable tool for analysis. Basically, COLREG is used to formulate such a strategy and among the regulations, situations of two-vessel encounter or even multi-vessel encounter are usually considered simultaneously such that the adaptive strategy can be determined for the navigator on watch. To seek for such an adaptive strategy is also the goal of this thesis. Main contributions on this thesis are proposed priority of COLREG and the dynamic risk value. The former is used in situations of two-vessel encounter; while the latter can be used in situations of two-vessel and multi-vessel encounter. For two-vessel encounter, the first stage is to consider the safety criterion and in the second stage, COLREG is introduced as the main concern. Both stages adopt dynamic game theory to determine the adaptive strategy. For multi-vessel encounter, the first stage is to introduce the dynamic risk value into strategy and then, the adaptive strategy developed in two-vessel encounter is combined with the concept of the dynamic risk value. Both stages adopt dynamic game theory to determine the adaptive strategy. An example is provided here for validating the proposed adaptive strategy for the multi-vessels encounter situation.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M93710005
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/16083
Appears in Collections:[商船學系] 博碩士論文

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