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|Authors: ||Wen-Chi Lin|
|Contributors: ||NTOU:Department of Marine Environmental Informatics|
|Issue Date: ||2011-06-30T08:13:26Z
|Abstract: ||湧浪在颱風尚未到達之前就已傳遞到岸邊，中央氣象局所發布的颱風警報是依據颱風到達岸邊的距離，而不是颱風波浪的到達。根據這項理由，颱風波浪到達的時間是無法與氣象局最初發布的警報相同，這可能會對在海岸活動的人造成危險。 這項研究係以龍洞與龜山島的資料來測量以及決定颱風影響之起始與結束點。根據中央氣象局和美國海軍聯合颱風警報中心所公佈的颱風資料，在颱風的距離上，湧浪到達的時間點和波浪受颱風影響的結束點是原因之一。從這些已知的氣象颱風資料，中心氣壓、暴風半徑和颱風速度也是決定的原因之一。有了這些參數，使用Microsoft SQL Server 2005資料探勘中的線性迴歸與決策樹，就可以用來分析颱風與測站的距離和路徑一這五個颱風參數二者之間的關係。 藉由同樣也是路徑一但卻不包括在這次的模擬過程中之賀伯颱風，利用資料探勘技術來驗證之間的關係。結果可以發現到使用決策樹比線性迴歸好，決策樹比較能確切地預測颱風波浪之起始與結束變化，以及決策樹在距離上的預測誤差是在35km之內。 因為僅有五筆颱風資料當作學習範本，建議有更完整的颱風資料可運用時，將能有更進一步的研究。|
Swells generated by a distant typhoon can be felt prior to the landing of the typhoon. The issuance of typhoon warnings by the Central Weather Bureau are based on the distance of the typhoon from the coast, rather than the arrival of typhoon waves. For this reason, the arrival time of typhoon waves may not coincide with the initial warning issued by the weather bureau. This in turn may pose danger for people participate in coastal activities. This study examined the wave records measured at LongDong and KueiSan Island, and determined the time of arrival of typhoon waves and the time of the sea out of the influence of the typhoons after they left Taiwan. Based on the typhoon data reported by the Central Weather Bureau and Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the US navy, the distances of the typhoon at the times of swell arrival and the ending of the influence of typhoon waves were determined. From the obtained meteorological typhoon data, the center pressure, the typhoon radius and the typhoon speed were also determined. With these parameters, data mining techniques, linear regression and decision tree, using Microsoft SQL Server 2005, were used to analyze the relationship between the typhoon distance and these calculated typhoon parameters for five typhoons with type I route. Parameters from the Typhoon Herb, which was also a type I route typhoon but not included in the learning process, were used to verify the relationship determined by the data mining technique. It was found that the relationship using decision tree better predict the distances of the starting and ending influence of the typhoon waves than that obtained by linear regression, and the prediction of the distance with the decision tree came within 35km. Since there were only five typhoon used in the learning process, it is suggested further investigation should be carried out once more typhoon data become available.
|Appears in Collections:||[海洋環境資訊系] 博碩士論文|
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