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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/14980

Title: 台灣地區21世紀末之降雨頻率分析
Taiwan's Rainfall Frequency Analysis in the End of 21st Century
Authors: Hui-Wen Chang
張惠雯
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 氣候變遷, 旱, 澇, 頻率分析, 克利金分析法
Climate change, Drought, Flood, Frequency, Kriging
Date: 2010
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T07:54:03Z
Abstract: 本研究探討二十一世紀末2080-2099年間台灣地區降雨頻率之分析。本文利用日本JMA/MRI 20km網格模式輸出日之雨量值,經象限轉換法校正後,與台灣地區83個測站之日雨量紀錄資料,採用對數皮爾遜第三型分佈及克利金法,分析該地區內日雨量站之年最大一日雨量、年最大二日雨量、年最大三日雨量及年最大連續不降雨日數,針對過去(1979-1998年)及未來(2080-2099年)降雨趨勢進行頻率分析及比較,以了解旱、澇頻率的衝擊影響。 研究結果顯示,全台灣各分區觀測之年降雨量並無漸增或漸減之趨勢,過去(1979-1998年)台灣西部新竹以南地區平均五年會發生一次小旱,雲林嘉義沿海地區則平均50年發生一次大旱,極端降雨主要發生在山區及東部沿海一帶;依據日本JMA/MRI模式對SRES A1B情境模擬之日雨量資料,未來(2080-2099年)於重現期100年尚無大旱發生,極端降雨亦發生於山區及東部地區,整體而言,未來二十一世紀末台灣地區不易有劇烈的暴雨及乾旱變化,但JMA/MRI輸出值有低估現象,未來仍有必要對其他模式輸出值進行研究,以預防可能的旱、澇情況發生。
The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrologic frequency of drought and flood in Taiwan. Totally, 83 rain gauges with records over Taiwan were selected. Based on downscaled GCM outputs under the A1B emissions scenario, frequency of the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-day, 2-day, and 3-day rainfall within 2080-2099 are studied, as compared with those within 1979-1998. Daily rainfall data from 20-km mesh AOGCM are applied. Because of underestimation of the data, it would be needed to correct the downscaling data by using the quadrant conversion method. Then the corrected data for the 83 stations over Taiwan are analyzed based on the Log-Pearson type III distribution and kriging method to realize the impact of the drought and flood frequency on Taiwan. The results show that the change of the maximum consecutive dry days within 2080-2099 over Taiwan is not significant. No large-scale drought(consecutive 100 days without rainfall)occurs in the future in the return period of 100 years, and extreme rainfall would occur in the mountains and eastern region.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M97520008
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/14980
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 博碩士論文

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