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Title: 坡地災害潛勢發生時間與位置之研究-以大粗坑集水區為例
Predicting the time and location for shallow landslide occurrence -A case study for Da-Tsu-Ken watershed
Authors: Jui-Yi Ho
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
Keywords: 坡地災害預測;水文模式;邊坡穩定分析
landslide prediction;hydrological model;slope instability analysis
Date: 2006
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T07:36:45Z
Abstract: 臺灣地區因特殊地形、地質與水文條件易於誘發山坡地坍塌,於颱風豪雨侵襲期間,往往造成山崩與土石流之坡地災害;其中複雜破碎的地質條件為坡地災害之潛在因子,而豐沛的降雨條件為坡地災害之觸發因子。本研究目的乃藉由邊坡穩定分析理論結合降雨逕流模式,預測於豪雨時期間可能引發坡地災害之分佈範圍,以提供相關單位發佈警訊與進行撤離。研究中蒐集臺北縣瑞芳鎮大粗坑集水區之水文及地文資料進行分析,並採用水文模式配合時雨量資料,以模擬集水區地下水位之變化;而後將所得集水區地下水位之變化配合無限邊坡穩定分析,藉以預測集水區中不穩定之格點。研究結果顯示,2000年11月象神颱風於昇福坑子集水區,造成50%以上之區域呈現不穩定狀態,而本研究所得之分析結果與坡地災害實際發生情形大致相符。因此應用本研究之分析方法,應可藉以發佈坡地災害之即時警訊,以減緩人員傷亡與財產損失。
The topographic, geological and hydrologic conditions of Taiwan usually induce landslide and debris flow during heavy rainstorms. Poor geological conditions induce a high potential to cause hillslope disasters, and severe rainstorms often trigger slope collapses. The objective of this study is to link a slope-instability analytical procedure to a watershed runoff model for landslide prediction during heavy rainfall periods. The analytical result can provide location and time for shallow landslide occurrences to authorities for disaster warning and evacuation. In this study, hydrologic records and geological information from the Da-Tsu-Keng watershed in Taipei County were collected for analysis. By using the hourly rainfall data, the varying of the water table on the hillslope was simulated using a hydrological model, and the temporal water level was then used in the slope instability analysis to predict instability grids within the study areas. The results show that more than 50% area of the study subwatershed was considered having potential for landslide occurrence during a severe typhoon in November 2000. The predicted landslide region and occurrence time matched well with the field investigation data. It is therefore considered promising to apply the proposed analytical procedure for real-time landslide warning to alleviate the loss of lives and property.
Appears in Collections:[Department of Harbor and River Engineering] Dissertations and Theses

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