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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/13956

Title: 具政策分析功能之旅客運輸能源需求模式
Authors: Chia-Ming Chang
張家明
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 運輸需求;旅客運輸;運輸能源;運輸能源需求模式;因素分解法
transportation demand;passenger transport;transportation energy;energy demand model of transportation;decomposition method
Date: 2003
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T07:31:22Z
Abstract: 運輸部門探討永續性運輸發展課題時,能源消耗一直以來都是受到重視的議題之一,但目前就運輸能源的使用與消費量,較缺乏具有政策評估的工具,以及與永續發展策略相關運輸能源需求影響績效模式,建立具政策分析功能之旅客運輸能源需求模式,以提供永續運輸政策與方案之評定與相關策略制定的方針。 本研究應用因素分解方法,對於影響旅客運輸能源需求之控制變數進行分解,俾構建一具政策分析功能之旅客運輸能源需求模式,並對模式中各項影響旅客運輸能源需求量之控制變數進行分析,在相關假設情境下,對旅客運輸能源需求量之變化情形進行探討。 在現有可操作的旅客運輸需求模式及運輸能源消耗特性之參數下,對於所構建之模式進行應用與分析,並以台灣本島地區為研究對象,旅客運輸需求模式參照第三期台灣地區整體運輸系統規劃,並以目前可取得之運輸能源消耗參數,對於運行能源需求量進行需求預測與分析;其對象包含有公路運輸、航空運輸、軌道運輸對目標年進行推估,並在小客車於不同乘載率假設情境下,其能源需求節省量具有相當效果,以及機車二行程與四行程佔有之比例假設情境下,以淘汰二行程車輛具有相當節省運輸能源需求效果。 根據上述分析,本文最後歸納重要結論,並提出未來研究方向以供參考。
Energy consumption is an important issue in sustainable transportation development. But we lack policy evaluation tools and transportation energy demand model that is related to sustainable development for the consumption of transportation energy. This study will present an energy demand model of passenger transport with policy sensitivity to provide guiding principles for sustainable transportation policy evaluation. This research use decomposition method to decompose the control variables of passenger transportation energy, formulate the energy demand model of passenger transport with policy sensitivity. Analysis the control variables which influence the passenger transport energy demand in this model. We refer to “The Third Taiwan Area Integrated Transportation Systems Planning Study” and all the available parameters of transportation energy consumption. To do prediction and analysis of the energy demand of road transportation, air transportation and rail transportation in Taiwan. The result shows that energy demand is reduced when vehicles have high occupancy and displace the two-stroke cycle engine by the four-stroke cycle engine. According to the previously analysis, this paper will sum up important conclusions at the end and put forward future research direction for reference.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M91520013
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/13956
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 博碩士論文

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