|Abstract: ||依據世界貿易組織2005年香港部長會議宣言，NAMA將以非單一係數瑞士公式進行關稅減讓，若台灣依已開發會員瑞士公式係數定在8以下，且依新入會員身份，享有2年過渡期，將於2011年1月開始履行降稅承諾，擬於5年完成降稅之執行期限尚可延長2年，則將於2017年12月完成關稅削減目標。本研究應用數學規劃方法並參酌孫金華等(1999)所建構之台灣漁業部門均衡模型，以2007年資料為基期年，同時考量未來人口成長及經濟成長率為2%，模擬關稅削減對我國漁業部門所產生之影響程度。 由實證結果顯示，若台灣將於2017年完全履行降稅承諾，進口量較2017年基線增加36.96%。此外，除公式降稅之外，進一步調整要素供給彈性，進行敏感性分析且同時考量低價進口漁產品直接替代國產品的衝擊下，2017年進口量相對基線成長91.51%，總漁業部門產量值分別縮減為6.64% (約96,967公噸)、14.23% (約23,723,647億元)，其中以養殖漁業所受衝擊為之最大。因為三大漁業皆減產，故漁業部門總產量減少6.64% (約96,967公噸)，勞動總使用量縮減21.19%。若依2007年漁業年報統計漁業從業人數，漁業部門有342,915人的就業水準而言，將有高達122,112人失業，其中以養殖漁業勞動使用量降幅為23.27%之衝擊最大。 在各類漁產品方面，養殖蝦貝類及養殖魚類所受衝擊最大，其中淡水長腳大蝦、九孔、鰻、牡蠣等養殖成本高過於產值，且容易被低價進口漁產品替代，在進口品競爭下將難以生存，預期將有一成以上的養殖漁民退出產業，需要政府輔導轉業。|
According to the 2005 World Trade Organization (WTO) Hong Kong Ministerial Declaration, NAMA negotiations will reduce tariff by using the non-single coefficient of Swiss formula. Based on the Swiss formula with coefficient 8 for developed members and the status of new members, the deadline for Taiwan to reduce tariff will be extended for two years. As Doha round negotiations will be implemented in January of 2011 with a 5-year implementation period, this suggests that the completion of final tariff reduction will be scheduled in December of 2017. This study utilizes mathematical programming techniques by applying the most current dataset in 2007 to the fisheries sector equilibrium model of Sun et al (1999) and at the same time considering both future population growth and economic growth rate of 2% to simulate the impact of tariff reduction on the fishing industry. We find that the import quantity of fishery sector in 2017 will increase by 36.96% of the 2017 predicted baseline. In addition to tariff reduction formula, we make further adjustments the supply elasticity of factors to conduct sensitivity analysis by simultaneously considering the impact of the low price of imported fish products as direct substitute for domestic products. The import quantity of fishery sector will increase by 91.51% in 2017, while the total production and the value of fisheries sector will decrease by 6.64% (which is about 96,967 MT) and 14.23% (which is about NT$22,723,647 million), respectively, of the predicted value of the corresponding baseline. Within the Taiwan’s fishery sector, aquaculture will bear the heaviest burden of the loss in output. Because the production of all three major fishery sectors will fall, the total production and the employment of fishery sectors will be reduced by 6.64% (which is about 96,967 MT) and 21.19%, respectively. According to the fisheries statistical yearbook in 2007, 342,915 were employed in the all fishery sectors. This means that as many as 122,112 people will be unemployed. The aquaculture sector will suffer the biggest loss in employment of 23.27%. Among the forty-three fishery products, farmed shrimp, shellfish, and fishes will suffer most of the loss in output reduction. The production cost of giant shrimp, small abalones, eel, oyster, and other aquaculture products exceed their output value, and the low price imported fish products will replace them in the market. Competition from imports will make it difficult for the producers to survive. It is anticipated that 10% of the above-noted fish farmers will have to withdraw from the industry. They will need government to assistance to find alternative employment.