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题名: WTO杜哈回合非農產品市場進入對我國漁業之影響分析-漁業部門均衡模型之應用
作者: Shou-Shin Chou
周淑幸
贡献者: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
关键词: 世界貿易組織;杜哈發展議程;杜哈工作計劃(七月套案);非農產品市場進入;漁業部門均衡模型;瑞士公式
World Trade Organization;Doha Development Round;Non-Agriculture Market Access (NAMA);Doha Work Programme (July Package);Fishery Sector Partial Equilibrium Model;Swiss Formula
日期: 2005
上传时间: 2011-06-30T07:09:30Z
摘要: 2001年11月世界貿易組織(WTO)舉行第四屆杜哈部長會議,於會中通過「杜哈發展議程」(Doha Development Agenda),正式揭示新回合多邊貿易談判。歷經多次談判及第五屆坎昆部長會議協商,終至2004年8月通過Doha Work Programme (簡稱七月套案),新回合非農產品市場進入議題主要係進行公式化的關稅削減及撤除,且於2005年12月13日至18日召開之第六屆香港部長會議,決議有關非農產品市場進入降稅公式部分,未來將以瑞士公式進行減讓,且朝多係數發展已成共識,另同意開發中會員可享有特殊及差別待遇,如談判架構中第8段彈性,並要求於2006年4月底前完成整體談判模式,於2006年7月底前提送減讓表,且WTO秘書處於2006年5月分別以係數2至15試算已開發會員及以係數15至40試算開發中會員之關稅降幅資料。 由於台灣受各國要求貿易自由化壓力,未來台灣可能被迫以加入WTO時之已開發會員身分接受係數甚低之瑞士公式減讓方式。若以係數2進行關稅削減,我國漁產品進口關稅將由2004年平均23.88%降至1.85%,降幅高達92%,恐將對台灣漁業造成衝擊影響。 本研究參酌孫金華、張靜貞及江福松(1999)建構之漁業部門均衡模型,並以吳苗芳(2005)及孫金華(2006)更新及修正之數學規劃程式及WTO非農產品市場進入最新談判進展,設定六種情境模擬新回合關稅減讓對台灣漁業部門的衝擊影響。其中情境二模擬以瑞士公式係數2降稅,並以稅後進口價格降幅衝擊國產品價格降幅,且假設短期內進口品行銷通路及市場胃納限制下,在設定各類漁產品進口量上限為2004年進口量之1.5倍時,則結果顯示2010年進口量將較基線年增加17.81%,整體漁業部門的總產量相對減少1.45% (約17,779公噸),總附加價值減少8.96% (約51.17億元)。就三大漁業別而言,遠洋漁業產量減產1.16% (約7,787公噸),其產值下降2.76%;沿近海漁業產量減產2.88% (約6,636公噸),其產值下降6.71%;而養殖漁業產量減產1.03% (約3,356公噸),產值下降6.35%。 若以情境五設定中長期時依進口通路成長模擬放寬各類漁產品之進口上限,並設定較高的勞動供給彈性情況下,依模型實證結果將對整體漁業部門的總產量相對減少5.83% ,而總產值將下降13.33%。因此本論文依此進一步認定受新回合貿易自由化影響之大宗養殖及沿近海漁產品為虱目魚、鯛魚、其他沿近海魚類、其他頭足、其他蝦、白蝦、牡蠣、長腳大蝦、石斑魚及蟳蟹等10項,建議政府參與WTO談判時爭取新入會員較長執行期之待遇,以紓解漁業產業結構調整之壓力,並應及早規劃各類漁產業結構調整計劃,且為提升產業競爭力暨沿近海及內陸水土資源保育及合理利用,進一步考量及早降低沿近海魚類之捕獲量及調整鰻魚等養殖魚種用水所引起環境外部不經濟等問題。 關鍵字:世界貿易組織、杜哈發展議程、杜哈工作計劃(七月套案)、非農產品市場進入、漁業部門均衡模型、瑞士公式
World Trade Organization (WTO) has launched the Doha Development Round of multilateral trade negotiation since the fourth Doha Ministerial Meeting on November 9, 2001. Through several negotiations and the fifth Cancun Minister Meeting, the Doha Work Programme (July Package) was finally adopted in August 2004. The framework of the new round of negotiation was established in the sixth Hong Kong Minister Meeting, which is held on December 13-18, 2005. The new round of Non-Agriculture Market Access (NAMA) aims to reduce tariff by formula. The Declaration of the sixth Hong Kong Minister Meeting states to use the Swiss formula, and reveals its consensus to develop toward multi-coefficients to allow developing countries to enjoy special treatment, such as states in the paragraph 8 of the Doha Work Programme Annex B. In addition, the Declaration has also required the negotiation modalities be completed before April 2006, and the draft schedules will be submitted no later than July 2006. In May 2006, the WTO secretary has calculated the tariff reduction magnitude of the developed members with Swiss formula’s coefficient 2 to 15 and with coefficient 15 to 40 of the developing member. Under the pressure of trade liberalization from other members in WTO, it is expected that Taiwan will be forced to accept the status of the developed members with lower coefficient of Swiss formul. If tariff is reduced by setting the coefficient of Swiss formula to 2, the average import tariff of seafood products in Taiwan will drop to 1.85% from 23.88% in 2004, with 92% reduction rate which may show a severe impact on fishery industry of Taiwan. This study tries to review the latest progress of the negotiation under WTO NAMA and utilizes the fisheries sector partial equilibrium model, which was established by Sun, Chang, and Chiang (1999) and updated and revised by Wu (2005) and Sun (2006), to specify six scenarios to simulate the impact of new-round tariff reduction on domestic fishery. This study finds that if the tariff is reduced by setting the coefficient of Swiss formula to 2, and the upper limit of import is assume to be no more than 1.5 times of the current imports to represent the lack of marketing channel and the limitation of the market capacity in the short-term, the import will increase only 17.81% in 2010 compared with respect to the baselin with 1.45% reduction of the total output (about 17,779 tons) of the whole fishery sector and of 8.96% reduction of the total value added (about NT$5.117 billion). As for the three major fisheries, the output of distant water fishery will decrease 1.16% (around 7,787 tons) with the output value experience 2.76% reduction; the output of coastal and offshore fishery will experience 2.88% reduction (about 6,636 tons) with 6.71% reduction on output value; the output of aquaculture will reduce by 1.03% (about 3,356 tons) with 6.35% reduction on output value. Hence, the government in Taiwan should try to claim the opportunity of special treatment, such as asking for longer implementation period for new members to lower the pressure on the fisheries sector. If we release the upper limit of imports stepwise and increase the supply response elastivities of labor and land as specified in scenario 5, the impact of the total output of the fisheries sector will be more sever than the baseline with 5.83%, and 13.33% reduction on total output value. Therefore, this thesis further concludes that the government should plan to adjust the industry structure in advance, since the domestic output of milkfish, snappers, other offshore fishes, other shrimps, white-leg shrimps, oysters, giant freshwater prawn, crabs, and groupers are influenced significantly by the Doha Development Round of trade liberalization. In addition, eel, giant freshwater prawn and many coastal/offshore fish species which may jeopardize the ground water resourse and biomass conservation of the coastal/offshore would also need to be adjusted in advance as well. Keywords: World Trade Organization, Doha Development Round, Non-Agriculture Market Access (NAMA), Doha Work Programme (July Package), Fishery Sector Partial Equilibrium Model, Swiss Formula
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M93350102
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/13010
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