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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/12999

Title: 南方黑鮪保育委員會管理程序決策原則之比較
Comparison of the Decision Rules of CCSBT Management Procedure
Authors: Shu-Ting Chang
張舒婷
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: CCSBT;管理序程;總可捕獲量;決策原則;表現評量;穩健性測試
CCSBT;Management Procedure;Total Allowable Catch;Decision Rules;Performance Measure;Robustness Tests
Date: 2005
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T07:09:29Z
Abstract: 中文摘要 南方黑鮪保育委員會 (CCSBT)為台灣第一個以漁捕實體(Fishing Entity)的名義正式加入的第一個國際漁業組織,為確保南方黑鮪資源的保育與最適利用而成立,自2000年起開始發展管理程序 (Management Procedure, MP),以期制定一套明確且透明之全球總可捕獲量(Total Allowable Catch, TAC)訂定機制。 依據2005年CCSBT第六屆資源評估小組會議(SAG6)報告,已明確指出2000年和2001年的南方黑鮪資源補充量已達歷史最低點,故為避免資源持續低迷,除了儘快執行管理程序外,立即調降TAC以防止未來資源衰退亦是必要的,因此建議2006年之TAC必須立即調降5,000公噸,或者2007年之TAC必需立即調降7,160公噸,以達到2014年資源量大於2004年資源量之機率為50%的標準。此外,再分別進行資源回復管理目標為2022年資源量小於2004年資源量之機率為10%和20%測試MP之表現。 2005年CCSBT第四屆管理程序小組會議中所篩選後的四套候選決策原則中,由於CCSBT第六屆資源評估小組會議(SAG6)認為第二套決策原則(CMP_2)之TAC年間變動較小,且有考慮到代表補充資源量之指標,因此建議採用CMP_2作為未來執行MP之依據。然而,本研究發現在SAG6會議評比四套候選原則時,CMP_2相較於CMP_1及CMP_4於2022年符合資源回復管理目標後,因模式的特性而幾乎不增加TAC,因此出現累積資源量的情形,導致TAC無法因應資源增加的訊息。此外,SAG6會議選擇CMP_2模擬資源回復管理目標為2022年資源量小於2004年資源量之機率為10%和20%時,則發現其因為 值的設定差異極大而使得TAC變動軌跡有著極端不同反應,而這將使產業對未來資源回復後存有傾向累積資源量或以完全開發資源之兩種預期,造成產業無所適從,無法規劃長期發展。最後SAG6評比CMP_2在資源回復管理目標之所有情境時,因為會議時間的限制,並未同時進行比較其他三套候選決策原則的表現情形,因此未來若單就此套決策原則決定未來資源量與捕獲量變化的方向,似乎過於偏頗。 有鑑於此,本研究提供四套候選決策原則中之第四套由台灣與會科學家所提出之決策原則CMP_4 (孫金華, 2005)進行上述之模擬設定,因CMP_4為唯一有考慮到資源與經濟兩者層面之長短期目標所設定之決策原則,以茲與CMP_2之表現進行表現評量值及穩健性測試之比較,完整的討論此兩套候選決策原則的特性。本研究模擬結果顯示CMP_4能分短、中、長期有彈性地根據資源的變動來調整TAC,使TAC能隨著資源的回復而增加,而在資源回復管理目標為10%或20%的兩種風險值設定下,CMP_4較CMP_2有一致的TAC反應軌跡。 台灣南方黑鮪漁獲配額面臨執行CMP_2後可能會大幅縮減的情形下,業者勢必面臨配額重新分配的局面,面對配額跨期分配的問題,台灣亟需效法澳洲在南方黑鮪漁業上導入可轉讓配額(Individual Transferable Quota, ITQ)制度,來使得南方黑鮪漁獲量分配更有效率。 本研究認為MP應考慮到產業合理的發展,其TAC必須要能適時的根據資源的回復而增加,若未來資源量呈現不斷累積的狀況,則業者對未來某時點TAC會存有大幅度增加的預期心理,而會有提前過度投資的問題,因此建議長期下漁獲量應要能隨資源量調整達到一平衡狀態,此時,產業穩定經營與資源量的穩定就可同時兼顧。
Abstract The Commission for Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) is the first international fishery organization Taiwan joins formally as a Fishing Entity. For conservation and effective utilization of the southern bluefin tuna (SBT) resources, Management Procedure (MP) has developed to produce a transparent and clear mechanism of setting total allowable catch (TAC). The Report of the Sixth Meeting of the Stock Assessment Group (SAG6) in 2005 has already confirmed that the recruitments in 2000 and 2001 were at historical low level. In addition to immediate adoption of an MP, catch reductions are required to prevent further stock decline. It is recommend that a 5000 tonne reduction in TAC in 2006 or a 7160 tonne reduction in TAC in 2007 will provide an estimated 50% probability that the spawning stock biomass in 2014 would be no lower than the level in 2004. Furthermore, tests for the performance of MPs were conducted given the resources recovery management goal of maintaining an estimated probability of 10% and 20%, respectively, that the stock in 2022 will be below the 2004 level. The four candidate decision rules were chosen at the the Fourth Meeting of the Management Procedure Workshop Subsequently, SAG6 recommends that CMP_2 be adopted as it uses indices of recruitment and provides a generally smoother and less variable catch series. In our research, we find that under CMP_2, after reaching resources recovery management goal in 2022, TAC will hardly increase because of the unique feature of the model. This is very different from CMP_1 and CMP_4. As a result, there will be excessive stock accumulation and the TAC can not respond to the information of increasing resources. In addition, when CMP_2 recommended by the SAG6 is so tuned that the probability of the stock in 2022 will be below 2004 level is an estimated 10% or 20%, we find that the traces of TAC variation under CMP_2 exhibits extreme different responses due to the very different value assumed. This leads the industry to expect either stock accumulation or complete exploitation of resources. The uncertainty will leave the industry at loss as to what it can do and unable to plan future development. Finally, due to the time limitation of the meeting, SAG6 evaluated all situations of CMP_2 in resources recovery goal, but did not compare it to others decision rules given the same resources recovery goal. This, it seems too biased if the future resources and direction of catch is determined only by this decision rule. In the above reason, this study uses CMP_4, one of the four decision rules proposed by Sun (2005), to conduct simulations. CMP_4 is the only decision rule that incorporates resource and economic considerations for the long-term and the short-term goals. A complete discussion of the comparison of CMP_2 and CMP_4 by performance measure and robustness tests will be made. For the simulation result, it appears that CMP_4 can adjust TAC by variation of resources for the short-term, the medium-term, and the long-term. Under the setting of resource recovery management goal of 10% and 20% risk, the traces of TAC variation under CMP_4 is consistent with the CMP_2. After CMP_2 is implemented, the SBT quota for Taiwan may be greatly reduced. Hence, the industry will face the quota redistribution. To deal with the issue of quota distribution over time, Taiwan should consider adopting the Individual Transferable Quota (ITQ) system and learn from the Australian experience to effectively manage the SBT catch distribution. We believe that an MP should give due consideration to the development of the industry and the TAC should increase timely as the stock recovers. If stock appears to accumulate continuously, the industry may anticipate large increments of TAC in the future. The anticipation may lead to excessive investment. Consequently, an ideal MP is one that the long-term catch should be adjusted in accordance with the resource level so that the stability of the industry and the resource stock can both be given due consideration at the same time.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M93350004
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/12999
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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