|Abstract: ||本文旨在探討台灣北部海岸旅遊線之遊憩效益，以其重點發展地區：東北角海岸風景區、金九地區、野柳-翡翠灣風景區以及基隆港都為研究對象，利用隨機效用模型(RUM)中之多元羅吉特模型(MNL)，分析295份到此區旅遊之有效樣本。經過Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives(IIA)檢定後，8個不同族群樣本以及全體樣本皆通過檢定結果，顯示出旅遊地點間替代與互補相關程度很低，不需要使用巢狀結構之MNL進行分析，而是採用MNL為實證模型進行實證分析。就整體而言，各族群之估計結果，參數值之符號皆符合經濟意涵。由關閉旅遊地點之模擬結果來看，表示出遊憩效益最高的地點為東北角海岸風景區；模型估計值為2.84億元；次高者為金九地區，模型估計值為0.75億元；其次為基隆港都，模型估計值為0.51億元；最低者為野柳-翡翠灣風景區，模型估計值為0.37億元。 本研究亦估計改變旅遊地點特徵屬性之遊憩效益，包括以下二種： 一、所有旅遊地點的遊客到訪次數同時增加30%、50%以及100%所衍生之遊憩效益，全體受訪者平均每人每次旅遊時可增加462~732元。 二、各旅遊地點的遊客到訪次數個別增加30%、50%以及100%所衍生之遊憩效益，全體受訪者平均每人每次旅遊可增加213~423.5元。|
This article for the purpose of discussing north Taiwan amusement and rest of benefit the seacoast traveling line, by its prioritize area: Northeast Coast National Scenic Area, Rueifan Special Scenic Area, Yeliu-Green Bav Scenic Area as well as Keelung Harbor Scenic Area all is the research object, analysis 295th in use multi-logit model (MNL) of random utility model (RUM) for reaches this point the area traveling the effective sample. After the process examination of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA), 8 different ethnicity samples and the total sample all pass the examination the result, displaying the tour location acts for and repairs the related degree with each other very low, don't need to use the MNL of the nest form structure to carry on the analysis, but adopt the MNL to carry on the substantial evidence analysis for the substantial evidence model. By all accounts, the estimate of each ethnicity as a result, the sign of the parameter value all matches the economic meaning. Travel by the close the emulation of the location as a result sees, indicating the highest location in the recreation benefit is Northeast Coast National Scenic Area; The model estimates the value as 284,000,000 dollars; second is Rueifan Special Scenic Area, the model estimates value for 75,000,000 dollars; third is Keelung Harbor Scenic Area secondly all, the model estimates be worth for 51,000,000 dollars; Lowest is Yeliu-Green Bav Scenic Area, the model estimate value is 37,000,000 dollars. This research also estimates the recreation benefit that the change tour location characteristic belongs to sex, including following two: (1)all visitors of tour location visits the number of times to increase the recreation benefit that 30%、50% and 100% develop meanwhile, the interviewee's average everybody of the all travels each time can increase 462~732 . (2)the visitor of each tour location visits the number of times to increase the recreation benefit that 30%、50% and 100% develop separately, the interviewee's average everybody of the all travel and can increase 213~423.5 dollars each time.