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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/12977

Title: 中國大陸在初級產業和科技產業的角色與人民幣波動對中國大陸對外貿易的影響:引力模型的應用
Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Mainland China on International Trade of Primary and Technology Industries and the Effect of RMB on Exports of Mainland China: An Application of the Gravity Model
Authors: Ying-Chih Sun
孫英智
Contributors: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
Keywords: 引力模型;初級產業;科技產業;購買力平價條件;人民幣升值
Gravity Model;Primary industry;Technology industry;Purchasing Power Parity;RMB appreciation
Date: 2004
Issue Date: 2011-06-30T07:09:25Z
Abstract: 本論文是由兩篇文章所組成,以WTA資料庫的全球貿易資料為樣本,探討下列兩個主題,分別是(1)中國大陸從1985到2000年在初級產業和科技產業的貿易效果與結構改變,與(2)購買力平價條件設定下的人民幣升值對於中國大陸進出口的影響─引力模型的應用。 論文第一個主題為檢視中國大陸在初級產業和科技產業貿易成長的差異,利用引力模型驗證初級或科技產業,在前五年既有貿易夥伴關係下,是否會影響下五年的貿易流量。其中關於既有貿易夥伴關係的認定,是根據群集分析的結果。群集分析除了在初級產業當中驗證出雙區塊的貿易型態之外,在科技產業也驗證出貿易區塊的事實。此外並驗證中國大陸對兩個產業在1990到2000年間的貿易效果,也都呈現顯著的引力效果,顯示中國大陸在國際貿易上扮演了更重要的角色。 論文第二個主題為利用2002年的全球貿易資料,來探討是否人民幣的升值對於中國大陸貿易產生影響。引力模型在本研究當中除了驗證模型的基本假設之外,透過購買力平價定理的變數使用,進一步將匯率因素引入模型當中。此外匯率體系變數的使用也發現實施中介匯率制度和浮動匯率制度的國家相對於固定匯率體系是不利於貿易的。最後本研究以引力模型的參數估計結果來進一步模擬人民幣在不同程度的升值情境下對貿易餘額的影響,在人民幣升值10%和20%的情境下,預估將分別對於中國大陸出口至各國的出口值造成平均0.45%和0.96%的減少,對於中國大陸進口自各國的進口值造成平均0.74%和1.58%的增加,在貿易餘額方面,則分別造成平均11.61%和24.62%的減少。
This thesis consists of two essays that employ global trade data in the WTA Database to investigate the following two topics, (1) the effect of Mainland China on the trade flow of primary industry and technology industry and the effect of Mainland China on its’ structure change from 1985 to 2000, and (2) the impact of RMB appreciating on the import and export of Mainland China based on the setting of Purchasing Power Parity in the trade gravity model. The first topic of essay examines the differences between the growth of trade flows of primary and technology industry in Mainland China, by utilizing the Gravity Model to show how intensive will the previous 5 year’s under-going trade-partnership will influence the trade flow of primary and technology industry five years later. First of all, the trade-partnership is identified based on the cluster analysis of the trade flow between each country. According to the result from the cluster analysis of primary industry, there is a double-blocks phenomenon with China is in the core of the Pacific cluster since 1985 to 2000 and there is a single-block phenomenon with China entering into the core of the cluster after 2000. The result of the gravity model shows that China had gain a significant gravity effect on the trade flow from 1995 to 2000 in both the primary and technology industry. The result provides the evidences that Mainland China plays a more important role in global trade than before. The second essay tries to estimate the impact of appreciating of RMB on export and import of Mainland China with the global trade data in 2002. The purchasing power parity variable is introduced to specify the export gravity model and to simulate the impact of appreciating of RMB. The estimation results show that if the exchange rate for those countries is under elucidate intermediated and floating exchange rate regimes, the export trade is lower than the export of the other countries, which is under the fixed exchange rate regime. By simulating the effect of RMB appreciation on the export of Mainland China, a 10% and 20% appreciation will decline the export of Mainland China for 0.45% and 0.96% in average, respectively. In the meanwhile, the import of Mainland China will increase 0.74% and 0.96%, respectively, and the balance of trade will experience a decline of 11.61% and 24.62%, respectively, in average.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M92350014
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/12977
Appears in Collections:[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文

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