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题名: WTO杜哈回合關稅減讓對台灣漁業的影響-漁業部門均衡模型之應用
A Study of the Impact of Tariff Reduction in Doha Development Round on the Fisheries Sector in Taiwan: An Application of the Fisheries Sector Equilibrium Model
作者: Miao-Fang Wu
吳苗芳
贡献者: NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics
國立臺灣海洋大學:應用經濟研究所
关键词: 漁業部門模型;世界貿易組織;數學規劃;瑞士公式;杜哈回合(新回合)
Fisheries Sector Model;WTO;Mathematical Programming;Swiss formula;Doha round (new round)
日期: 2004
上传时间: 2011-06-30T07:09:25Z
摘要: 世界貿易組織2001年11月9日在卡達首府杜哈(Doha)舉行第四屆部長會議時,於會中通過「杜哈發展議程」(Doha Development Agenda),正式揭示新一回合多邊貿易談判的全面展開。但由於杜哈回合談判內容廣泛,涵括多項議題且在單一承諾的模式下更造成談判協商的因難。因此,在第五屆坎昆部長會議宣告失敗後,各項議題延宕多時,直至2004年8月通過Doha Work Programme,簡稱七月套案(July Package)後,新回合多邊談判方重新展開。 根據2004年七月套案談判架構,非農產品市場進入議題主要係進行公式化的關稅削減或撤除。以目前談判情形看來,未來將以瑞士公式及Girard主席公式等非線性公式進行減讓。面對「工業主攻」的策略下,在非農產品市場進入議題上我國主張採行大幅降稅的瑞士公式,則漁產品進口關稅將大幅下降。就2004年台灣漁產品進口關稅HS code十碼項目分配情形看來,進口關稅高於15%者約佔七成左右,因此恐將對我國平均關稅稅率偏高的漁業部門造成相當程度的衝擊。 在新回合預定的談判期程下,本研究依據烏拉圭回合自1986年到1994年歷經8年的談判經驗,預估新回合將於2010年前達成協議並開始履行部份階段性關稅減讓,且若將於2014年完成關稅減讓承諾,則台灣漁業將可能面臨較2002年入會時由27.9%降至17.8%更大的挑戰及衝擊。依據美國所倡議瑞士公式參數設定為8下進行關稅削減後,我國漁產品HS code十碼項目原最高為50%之進口關稅約降至6.9%。因此,本研究將應用數學規劃方法並參酌孫金華、張靜貞及江福松(1999)建構之漁業部門均衡模型,以2004年為基期年,納入所得及人口成長對漁產品需求的影響,模擬2010年及2014年在瑞士公式不同參數大小的設定下,進行關稅削減對我國漁業造成的衝擊。 由實證結果看出,在本研究考量未來人口成長並假設經濟成長率為3%對漁產品需求的影響下,2014年基線漁業部門的總產量較基期年成長3.73%。在假設出口量不變下,依美國所倡議參數設定為8進行關稅削減,2014年進口量將較基線模擬增加29.30%,整體漁業部門的總產量相對減少1.12% (約17,121公噸),總附加價值減少6.35% (約42.58億元)。就三大漁業別而言,除了遠洋漁業產量幾乎維持不變外,沿近海漁業產量減產3.37% (約8,424公噸)、養殖漁業產量減產2.34% (約8,703公噸)。就個別漁產品方面,則以蟳蟹、白蝦、淡水長腳大蝦、草蝦及其他淡水魚類受市場開放影響較大,而易被進口替代。
World Trade Organization (WTO) had begun a new round multilateral trade negotiation since the fourth Ministerial Meeting in Capital Doha of Qatar on November 9, 2001. The content of the Doha negotiations is extensive and it’s equirement regarding the single undertaking condition is difficult to be accepted by all members. Since the fifth Cancun Ministerial Meeting failed to reach consensus, every topic was procrastinated for a long time. Since the Doha Work Programme (July Package) was adapted in August 2004, the new round multilateral negotiation is able to launch again. According to July Package, seafood product is classified as non-agriculture market access (NAMA) negotiations aim to reduce the peak of the tariffs by a non-linear Swiss formula or Girard formula. Following the strategy of “industry first” in NAMA negotiations, Taiwan may choose to vote for Swiss formula which will help to improve the export of domestic industry by eliminate the import tariffs. However, the import tariffs of seafood products will decline dramatically and the domestic fishery sector may suffer a lot. Based on there are eight years negotiation process for WTO Uruguay Round form 1986 to 1994, the new round negotiation is probably will be implemented in 2010 and a final tariff reduction schedule may be ended in 2014. If the parameter is set to 8 under the Swiss formul, such as proposed by US during the negotiation, the highest seafood tariff, which is about 50%, will dropped to 6.9%. By taking into account both the growth of population and income in 2010 and 2014, this study utilizes the most current dataset in 2004 to update the fisheries sector partial equilibrium model, which was established by Sun, Chang, and Chiang (1999), to evaluate the impact of tariff reduction under various parameters setting of Swiss formula with two different scenario in 2010 and 2014. The study finds that the total production of fishery sector in 2014 baseline will increase by 3.73% than what’s in the base year of 2004. If the export quantity will not be influenced and the parameter in Swiss formula is set to 8, the import quantity in 2014 will increase by 29.30% than the baseline in 2014 , the total production and the add-value of fishery sector will be reduced by 1.12% (which is about 17,121 MT) and 6.35% (which is about NT$4,258 million), respectively. The total production of coastal/offshore and aquaculture fishery will decrease by 3.37% (which is about 8,424 MT) and 2.34% (which is about 8,703 MT), respectively. Within the forty fishery products, crab, white shrimp, giant shrimp, grass shrimp, and other fish will bear the biggest loss in output and will be replaced easily by import products.
URI: http://ethesys.lib.ntou.edu.tw/cdrfb3/record/#G0M92350009
http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/12973
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