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Sensitivity Analysis of the TAI_ Decision Rules of Management Procedure for Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna
|Authors: ||Yi-Ting Lin|
|Contributors: ||NTOU:Institute of Applied Economics|
Southern Bluefin Tuna;Sensitivity Analysis;Reference Set;Decision Rule;CPUE;Total Allowable Catch;Operating Model
|Issue Date: ||2011-06-30T07:09:24Z
|Abstract: ||摘要 為保育與最適利用南方黑鮪的資源，南方黑鮪保育委員會(CCSBT)自2000年起開始發展管理程序(Management Procedure, MP)，以制定一套明確且透明之全球總可捕獲量(TAC)訂定機制。 依據2004年CCSBT第三屆管理程序小組會議已明確由各國報告中最後選出四套決策原則，並依2005年CCSBT第十一屆年會決議將於2005年第十二屆大會決策啟動管理程序，其中TAI_03決策原則為由台灣代表所發展，依CPUE變動率及漁獲量與魚價波動之逆需求彈性調整TAC，為兼顧資源保育及產業穩定經營之決策原則(Sun, 2004)。 本研究將針對CCSBT於2005年2月管理程序技術特別會議所設定之管理程序運作模式進行測試，並應用CCSBT於同年3月間所決定最後的參考模組(Rerference Set)作為模擬未來資源動態之基礎，就台灣決策原則TAI_03進行敏感度分析，探討CPUE變動率及漁獲量與魚價之逆需求彈性在不同設定下，未來資源量及TAC變化的軌跡。 本研究嘗試建構符合產業經濟觀點之決策原則TAI_04，短期內TAC緩慢下降，可有效控制其風險值在較低的水準，適度提供產業逐漸移出的機會，減低業者所面對的總收益不確定性，但此一決策原則因保留本期TAC之85%不變，其餘15%隨CPUE變動率調整，且CPUE變動率值很小，導致在2022年達到資源回復的管理目標水準後，TAC仍無法隨資源回復而增加，此一部分是未來需要改進之處。|
Abstract The Management Procedure of Southern Bluefin Tuna (SBT) was developed since 2000 by Commission for Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) to ensure appropriate level of total allowable catch (TAC) and to conserve and ensure optimum utilization of the global SBT fishery through a transparent mechanism for deciding the global total allowable catch. According to both of the official report of CCSBT for the third Meeting of the Management Procedure Workshop and the Eleventh Annual Meeting of the Extended Commission in 2004, four final candidate decision rules (DR) was selected to decide an appropriate TAC in various scenarios under the Management Procedure in the Twelfth Annual Meeting of the Extended Commission of CCSBT in 2005. Among the final four candidate decision rules, TAI_03, proposed by Sun (2004), is a CPUE-based DR with a negative built-in feedback component in term of the theoretical economic consideration of the inverse relationship between price and demand, which is the decision rule takes into account both sustainability of resource management and industry by the signal of slope of the regression of log of CPUE and inverse relationship between price and demand. This study conducts an extensive sensitivity analysis of TAI_03 based on the Reference Set specified by the Operating Model, which was set up by the scientific advisory panel of CCSBT in February, 2005 to determine the trajectory of the biomass and total allowable catch (TAC) in the future. Under various parameters setting about the measures of the effect of the percentage change of the influence of the TAC in the next period, this study specifies TAI_04 decision rule to perform a moderate deduction of TAC. The TAI_04 decision rule maintains 85% TAC in the previous period and leaves only 15% of TAC in the previous period to adjust accordingly to the slope of the regression of log of CPUE to prevent great risk effectively in the short run and to offers the opportunity to the industry to adjust gradually to reduce the deadweight of the social welfare and uncertainty in the long run. Since there is not enough of the change of the slope of the CPUE to increase TAC after the recovering of SBT stock to the tuning level after 2022, it is necessary to improve the build-in self-adjustment process in the long run in order to ensure optimum utilization of the global SBT fishery.
|Appears in Collections:||[應用經濟研究所] 博碩士論文|
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