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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/12319

Title: 建立高精度與高效能之洪氾預警整合系統---總計畫暨子計畫:結合降雨預報資料發展即時校正逕流演算模式(I)
Development of Real-Time Updating Runoff Model Using Forecasting Rainfall Data (I)
Authors: 李光敦
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 降雨逕流模式;河道洪水演算模式;海岸越波模式;二維淹水模式;資訊整合平台
rainfall-runoff routing model;channel-flow routing model;storm surge model;2-D inundation model;integrated platform
Date: 2010-08
Issue Date: 2011-06-29T01:39:04Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 摘要:台灣地區雨量豐沛,年平均降雨量高達2500 公釐,為世界平均值的2.5 倍。且降 雨集中在每年5 月至10 月,佔全年雨量的四分之三,且大部份為颱風所帶來的豪雨。 由1897 年至2008 年資料統計結果顯示,侵襲台灣之颱風總計420 次,即平均每年3.75 次。除此之外,尚有上千次暴雨掠奪,更加深本省水患的嚴重性。2009 年8 月8 日至 10 日之莫拉克風災造成南台灣地區,人民生命及經濟上之重大損失。因此如何開發高 精度與高效能之洪氾預警系統,提供正確洪水預報資訊,以供相關單位與民眾進行防 洪減災措施,減少洪水所帶來的災害,實乃刻不容緩之要務。 本研究計畫之目的在於結合降雨預報資料,以發展即時校正逕流演算模式,進而 提供河道水理演算,藉以發展洪氾預警系統。研究中首先將利用數值高程模式劃分欲 計算渠道上游集水區、渠道兩側次集水區與殘流域之地文因子,而後採用地形性水文 模式進行逕流演算,並配合即時流量回傳資料,以發展即時逕流校正方式,提高集水 區逕流預測之精度與效能。 第一年計畫將先收集研究集水區之水文與地文資料,進行地形性水文模式之參數 檢定,並以颱洪事件進行模式驗證,而後配合流量紀錄,開發具有即時校正功能之集 水區降雨逕流模式。第二年計畫將結合子計畫一所提供之1-3 小時降雨預報,進而分 析即時校正的降雨逕流演算結果,並且聯結子計畫三與子計畫四之河道洪水演算模 式,以檢視河道洪水演算模式之模擬結果,檢討逕流演算之即時校正功能。第三年計 畫將檢討集水區逕流分區原則,以及建立逕流模擬之替代演算模式,並且進行逕流模 式參數敏感度分析,而後整合模式聯結與架構修正。本計畫完成之後,可將逕流演算 模擬結果,提供予子計畫三與子計畫四以進行河道洪水即時預報工作,藉以發展高精 度與高效能之洪氾預警整合系統,提供流域防洪預警之即時相關資訊。
abstract:The annual rainfall in Taiwan reaches 2,500 mm, which is about 2.5 times the world average. Three-fourth rainstorms mainly occured between May and October and resulted from typhoons. Records from 1897 to 2008 show that total 420 typhoon events invaded Taiwan, that is 3.5 typhoons in avarage every year. Since the typhoons and concentrated rainstorms caused severe damages in the island, such as Typhoon Morakot caused severe damage to southern Taiwan during August 8–10, developing a high precision and efficiency of flooding warning system to provide accuracy flood forecasting information for flooding prevention and disaster reduction is considered important for authority and people. The objective of this study is to develop the real-time flow updating model combined with rainfall forecasting data. The hydrographs generated from the runoff model will be input to the channel-flow routing model for water level predicting. A digital elevation model (DEM) will be adopted to delineate lateral areas and boundaries of subwatersheds along the mainstream. Detail geomorphic factors for the lateral areas and subwatersheds will be as the input to a geomorphology-based runoff model to generate flow hydrographs. Consequently, the real-time runoff feedback data will be adopted to develop a real-time updating runoff model to improve the precision and efficiency of runoff forecasting. In the first year project, hydrological and geomorphologic data of the study watershed will be collected. The parameters of geomorphology-based runoff model will be calibration, and then use the given rainstorm events on watersheds will be simulated to confirm thes accuracy of the proposed model. Consequently, the real-time runoff feedback data will be adopted to develop the watershed runoff forecasting model with real-time error based updating. In the second year project, the ahead 3 hour of rainfall forecasting (Subproject I) will be combined the proposed model to analyze the results of real-time forecasting runoff. Furthermore, the results will be as input for real-time channel routing models (Subproject III & Subproject IV) to confirm the simulated results, and the efficiency of real-time updating method will be reviewed. In the third year project, the area-delineated principles will be reviewed and the alternative runoff model will be developed. Consequently, the detailed sensitivity analysis of model parameters will also be performed, and then the proposed model will be integrated and revised. It is promising to develop an integrated flood warning system with high precision and efficiency using the predicted watershed runoff (Subproject II) and linking with the channel-flow routing model (Subproject III & Subproject IV) to provide real-time flooding information to authorities and people.
Relation: NSC99-2625-M019-002
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/12319
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 研究計畫

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