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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/12226

Title: 強化乾旱預警與應變機制之區域乾旱預警模式建置
Build up a Drought Early Warning System on the Region of Water Resource Supply
Authors: 黃文政;楊富堤
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
Date: 2007-08
Issue Date: 2011-06-29T01:38:44Z
Publisher: 經濟部水利署
Abstract: 摘要:(1) 近年來由於經濟發展與供水系統等因素,乾旱事件所引起缺水損害與影響與日俱增,經濟部水利署水利防災中心及相關單位為減輕乾旱期間缺水之損害所研擬之應變機制與乾旱預警機制的建立,已刻不容緩。因此本委辦計畫旨在強化乾旱預警與應變機制之區域乾旱預警模式的建置,擬綜合乾旱的監測、影響、預警、應變至決策的分析,建立乾旱指標、水情情勢分析、乾旱預警分析及抗旱因應對策,並藉由此計畫執行,完成系統建置並展示決策支援成果,供水利署與相關業務單位人員於乾旱發生前進行乾旱預警評估、用以支援救旱決策之制定,輔助各權責單位作出休耕、限水等決策。 (2) 從計畫要旨中,擬以水文超越機率及水庫蓄水狀況以模糊隸屬度函數建構無乾旱(等級1)、輕度乾旱(等級2)、中度乾旱(等級3)、嚴重乾旱(等級4)、極嚴重乾旱(等級5)等五個乾旱等級之乾旱指標,藉以評估現況水情之豐枯情形。由於乾旱所致缺水損失與影響,除水文乾旱因素外,主要為供水區域供水能力失調,因此本計畫擬以翡翠水庫、石門水庫集水區之供水區域為例,建立一水情情勢分析模式,從不同水文狀態,模擬分析未來供水情形,據以分析出未來水情供需狀況,而藉由缺水率與缺水危害影響關係,建構以綠、藍、黃、橙、紅燈號顯示之乾旱預警指標及其抗旱因應方案,透過機率模式的應用進一步提供乾旱預警決策參考訊息,以於乾旱發生前進行乾旱預警評估,以減輕、消除乾旱可能發生之危害與影響範圍,是為本計畫主要工作內容。 (3) 而上述相關系統建置與決策支援之成果展示,將以Web-base為架構,建構一網路介面線上即時分析與操作介面,同時提供乾旱期間所需相關水情資訊與應變措施下,即時水資源供需模擬之決策資訊,在本計畫團隊具有多年水文即時資料庫與線上水文分析模式的實際開發經驗下,同時從乾旱指標、水庫水情分析、乾旱預警等已完成之模式的開發,本計畫團隊必能完成一操作簡便、親和性且提供適宜足夠的乾旱應變機制所需之水情資訊,以便於決策者使用的乾旱預警系統,並且可以簡化工作流程與減輕工作份量,提供決策者友善的可行決策,是本計畫團隊執行完成本計畫可預期之執行成果與效益。
abstract:In this project, a color-coded early warning system was developed and proposed for drought management on the real-time reservoir operation. The system consists of three essential elements, namely, (a) drought watch, (b) water consumption measure, and (c) policy making. A Drought Alert Index (DAI) was used to characterize the alert level of drought severity. For demonstration, the drought warning procedures were effectively applied to historical droughts from dry condition to wet situation. The implementation of such a system proves that the decision support-like system can help the water authorities concerned take a timely action while confronting drought threats. In addition, this study presents a risk-based decision model integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, both Shihmen and Feitsui reservoirs in northern Taiwan were tested. Besides, a user-friendly decision support system (DSS) for drought early warning system on the region of water resource supply has been introduced with an eye to practical use. The system can assist reservoir managers to work out applicable rule for real-time reservoir operation.
Relation: MOEAWRA0960063
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/12226
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 研究計畫

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