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Analysis of Base Flow in Reservoir Watersheds during Drought (I)
|Contributors: ||NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering|
Base flow analysis;TOPMODEL;Digital elevation model
|Issue Date: ||2011-06-29T01:38:04Z
|Abstract: ||摘要:傳統水文學中對於基流量之推估，均 是採用序率分析方式進行預測；亦即是藉 由過去的水文紀錄資料，以分析未來可能 發生的流量分佈情形。有鑑於近十年來全 球氣候環境的變遷，因此早期水文紀錄資 料所顯現的逕流特性，未必能夠涵蓋現在 或未來即將發生的乾旱情形。所以本研究 摒棄以往應用序率理論分析低水期流量 之方式，而採用定率分析方式以建立集水 區基流量分析模式。 本年度之主要工作乃在應用部分集 水面積觀念，配合研究集水區之地形與土 壤特性，建立地形指數模式，以分析乾旱 期間集水區之基流量。研究中以石門水庫 集水區與橫溪集水區 (非水庫集水區)為 研究集水區，並應用數值高程模式分析集 水區地文特性，而後採用地形指數模式理 論以建立基流量分析模式。研究結果顯 示，地形指數模式於橫溪集水區可獲致良 好的模擬；而模式經乾、濕季修正後，配 合集水區分區計算亦可於石門水庫集水 區獲得不錯之模擬結果。本研究於未來研 究中將以本年度之計畫成果為基礎，配合 子計畫一所預測之乾旱降雨情形作為模 式之輸入，而推估乾旱時期河川基流量之 空間分佈，以作為子計畫三之後續分析， 進而提供政府於乾旱時期水資源調配之 有效方案。|
abstract:In conventional hydrology, low-flow was usually analyzed by using stochastic models, which are based on historical records from watersheds for hydrologic predictions. However, research on globe climate change has demonstrated that hydrologic environment was different from that in before especially in the past ten years. Therefore, hydrologic analysis based on previous measured records may not be able to well represent the drought condition in the future. Consequently, the deterministic approach would be more adequate for low-flow simulation instead of using the historical-record-based stochastic model. In this year project, the TOPMODEL model, which is based on the partial contributing area concept, was established for low-flow simulation during drought in correspondence with the characteristics of watershed topography and soil condition in the study watersheds. The Shihmen Reservoir watershed and the Heng-Chi watershed were used for model verification. A digital elevation model was applied to analyze the geomorphic characteristics of the study watersheds. The results obtained by applying the TOPMODEL have shown in good agreement with recorders in the Heng-Chi watershed. Through calibrating model parameters in wet and dry seasons, and separating watershed into several subwatersheds, we could also obtain good simulation results in the Shihmen Reservoir watershed. Further research will be conducted to integrate the predicted rainfall data from the 1st subproject, and then to render the discharge simulation results to the 3rd subproject for drought index derivation. It is hope that the analytical results from this integrated project can provide valuable information to authority for water distribution during drought.
|Appears in Collections:||[河海工程學系] 研究計畫|
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