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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/12074

Title: 乾旱期間水資源供需模式之研究---總計畫暨子計畫:乾旱期間水庫集水區水資源分析模式之研發(I)
Water Resources Modeling of Reservoir System during Dry Season (I)
Authors: 黃文政
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 乾旱指標;缺水指標;乾旱預警
drought alert index;early warning system;reservoir operation
Date: 2003-08
Issue Date: 2011-06-29T01:38:04Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 摘要:乾旱預警指標為乾旱時期之各項應變措施實施之參考,因此本研究乃綜合考量地表逕流量、水庫蓄水量,運用超越機率及模糊理論對乾旱現況進行判定,進一步建立其現況乾旱指標,方法為針對評估指標確定其評估等級,建構如“無乾旱”、“輕度乾旱”、“中度乾旱”、“ 嚴重乾旱”、“ 極嚴重乾旱”等等級的指標,以隨時掌握水庫乾旱資訊。並且針對未來三個月之供水情況進行模擬,亦將其定出評估等級,建構未來缺水指標如“無缺水”、“輕度缺水”、“中度缺水”、“ 嚴重缺水”、“ 極嚴重缺水”等等級,最後將兩指標合併建構出乾旱預警指標。並配合預警系統之設立,使用燈號表示乾旱等級,並訂出供水折扣率,以進行限水措施。
本子計畫首先以石門水庫為例,由過去三個月之入庫流量、現況蓄水位結合成現況乾旱指標後以反應水庫的現況乾旱情況,及各未來三個月等級超越機率下入流量所對應之缺水情況所製成之缺水指標,加上兩者結合而成之乾旱預警指標等三項指標。本子計畫暫選取40 年紀錄中之枯水年2002 年及2003 年進行評估,而結果皆能有效反應乾旱情況。同時利用預警系統所訂之限水措施後,皆能有效的減輕乾旱帶來的災害。
abstract:A color-coded early warning system is developed and proposed for drought management on the real-time reservoir operation. The system consists of three essential elements, names, (1) drought watch, (2) water consumption measure, and (3) policy making. A new drought alert index is used to characterize the alert level of drought
severity. For demonstration the drought warming procedures were effectively applied to Shihmen reservoir. The implementation of such a system proves that the decision support-like system can help the water authorities concerned take a timely action while confronting drought theats.
Relation: NSC92-2625-Z019-001
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/12074
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 研究計畫

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