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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/11922

Title: 水土資源永續指標體系及其評量與評價方法之建立---子計畫I:水資源永續指標體系及其評量與評價方法之建立(II)
Establish a Sustainable Indicator System and Methodology for Assessment and Evaluation of Water Resources (II)
Authors: 廖朝軒;鄒禕;丁澈士
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
國立臺灣海洋大學:河海工程學系
Keywords: 水資源;水續發展;評價;永續指標
Water resources;Sustainable development;Evaluation;Sustainable indicator
Date: 1999-08
Issue Date: 2011-06-29T01:37:12Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 摘要:今日我們所深切關心的問題是如何致力於維護我們的環境,以避免影響未來子子孫孫的基本生存空間。永續發展的提出源於人們對環境問題的逐步認識和熱切關注,1987年世界環境與發展委員會把永續發展定義為:「滿足當代需要,同時不損及未來世代滿足其需要發展」。而永續水資源管理已是當代世界水問題研究的重點之一,而在建立永續水資源管理模型同時,必須先建立水資源永續利用評量評價指標體系,以評價水資源利用情形與存在的問題。本研究就指標定量處理過程及永續評價方法進行探討,期能建立一套具有主客觀性及綜合性之區域水資源永續利用評量評價體系。陳建志(1999)已初步建構水資源永續指標體系,在考量濁水溪流域的資料可行性下,刪除19個指標,其中無統計資料的有8個指標,無流域尺度資料的有4個,重複性過高者有4個,不易推估的有3個,最後僅剩16個指標。最終所建構適合濁水溪流域水資源永續利用指標體系,可分為四個層次,第一層為目標層;第二層為子目標層,包括3個子目標;第三層為議題層,包括6個議題;第四層為指標層,包括16個指標。在指標體系中各指標項目權重決定,除延續採取專家問卷配合統計分析的主觀法包括德爾裴技法、層次分析及灰色統計法計算之,三方法所獲結果差異不大,故可以三法之平均做為各指標權重,另外為配合所獲得資料,採用熵理論原理的客觀法,按各指標實際資料計算其權重,所獲結果與主觀法結果差異極大,其可能造成的原因為其資料長度較短與資料缺乏之故。為能合理表現指標體系的權重,則建議採用主客法所得權重之綜合值進行分析。在永續利用評價方面,本研究採用專家評分法、灰色理論中的一般灰關聯分析方法和廣義灰關聯分析方法及熵理論進行評價,評價係以濁水溪流域民國80年到86年資料進行分析,此四種方法的原則雖不同,但評價結果趨勢一致,而以民國83年為最佳,此與實際情況頗為吻合,而各方法在水資源永續利用評價各有其特色,專家評分法與熵理論法係一種絕對評價,故需大量資料方能正確判定,但灰關聯法專家評分法與熵理論法係一種絕對評價,故需大量資料方能正確判定,但灰關聯法係一種相對評價,它需有二組以上序列才能應用,故只能在對比序列數量增加下,兩種方法所獲得結果一致性方能提升。水資源永續利用指標體系及評量評價方法之建立,需要大量時間和空間的資料,因此收集越多其它區域資料數據做參考依據,方能訂定合理永續利用之目標,故水資源永續利用指標體系架構之建立與評量評價方法需隨時間對資料之更新不斷予以修正。
abstract:A deep understanding of the problems we are concerned today is the necessary basis for the start of activities aimed at conservation of the environment for the shake of future generations. In 1987, the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) had defined sustainable development as 'Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs'. Water resource organizations have come to understand that they require more new techniques for sustainable water resources management that has increasing widely accepted concept. As a basis for the solution of this problem, the approach based on the use of a system of water resources indices is needed. This study will focus on developing the methodology for assessing and evaluating the sustainability of water resources and will provide decision-makers with analytical tools to promote comprehensive management of regional water resources. Chen (1999) had established a framework of indicators that included four hierarchy layers and 35 indicators for sustainable water resources management. For Chaoshi River Basin, 19 indicators were dropped due to insufficient data. Therefore, 16 indicators were remained. For determining the weighting of each indicator, subjective weighting methods were done through expert's judgment. In addition, entrophy theory, which is an objective weighting method assigned through data process, was used to compare with the results from subjective methods. The results from subjective and objective approaches were found significant difference. The reason for the difference might result from insufficient data. Therefore, the average value of the two approaches was taken because there was no information to be discriminated. For sustainability assessment, four methods, which included Expert Evaluation, General Grey Correlation, Extensive Grey Correlation, and Entrophy Evaluation, were used and compared. Water resources data from 1991 to 1997 were used and analyzed. Among them, it showed the best performance toward sustainability in the year of 1994. Expert and Entrophy evaluation methods are absolute assessment methods while General Grey and Extension Grey evaluation methods are relative methods. They will obtain satisfactory and comparable results only when the length of data is long enough. It needs a large quantity of spatial and temporal data for establishing the framework of indices and sustainability assessment for the sustainable management of water resources. Hence, they have to be modified and improved, as more data are available.
Relation: NSC89-2621-Z019-005
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/11922
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 研究計畫

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