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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/11770

Title: 區域需水量系統模擬與預測
Systematic Simulation and Forecasting of Regional Water Demand
Authors: 廖朝軒;朱壽全
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Harbor and River Engineering
Keywords: 給水;需水量預測;動態模擬
Water supply;Water demand forecasting;Dynamic simulation
Water supply;Water demand forecasting;Dynamic simulation;Water conservation strategy
Date: 1994-08
Issue Date: 2011-06-29T01:36:39Z
Publisher: 行政院國家科學委員會
Abstract: 摘要:正確預測未來需水量的大小,是水資源規劃、開發與管理的重要依據,高估需水量易導致水資源開發的壓力,造成水資源的浪費;低估則造成供水短缺現象。國內過去對於生活需水量的預測多是假設未來的用水型態與過去相同,利用統計方法延伸、預測未來需水量而造成不合理現象,為了有效改善此一缺點,本研究採用系統動態學理論建立北部區域生活需水量預測模式,藉以瞭解影響需水量的主要因素,且在需水量管理中提供一些重要的訊息。 本研究首先參考國內相關之研究文獻與資料,確定了主要變數為人口、區域內經濟暨工業發展、自來水供水普及率與生活人均用水量及節約用水措施,並建立各變數間的因果關係迴路及各變數間之系統結構流程,在利用歷史資料建立其間的數學關連式,並以統計理論加以檢定,據以建立北部地區需水量預測模式。 依據模型檢定結果顯示,模型所預測的生活需水量與實際資料的絕對誤差均小於5%,工業需水量則僅有民國76年及80年的絕對誤差大於5%,而且各主要變數間的預測結果亦相當良好,顯示將系統動態學應用在需水量預測的可行性,且此模式甚具彈性,如有新的影響因素要加入此模型中,則僅需建立與該新因素有關的其他因素的因果關係鏈,並加入模型之中即可。 模型中亦考慮不同的節約用水措施,依據預測的結果顯示,即使是在最悲觀的節約用水方案下,生活需水量在民國100年可以節省約142.565百萬立方公尺,工業需水量則可以節省34.300百萬立方公尺;若是在最樂觀的節約用水方案下,生活需水量在民國100年可以節省約475.218百萬立方公尺,工業需水量則可以節省416.700百萬立方公尺。
abstract:For the efficient planning, developing, and operation of water resources systems, it requires accurate forecasts of water demand. Overestimation of future water use results in increasing stress of water resources development and chance of wasting water resources. While under-estimation results in frequent water shortage in the future. Traditionally, forecasts have usually been based on previous levels of water use which are extrapolated to a future date. Failure to take into account major influences on future water use in various sectors are the most critical shortcomings of this method. For avoiding this drawback, this study uses system dynamics (SD) simulation theory to establish regional water demand forecasting model for north region of Taiwan. Through the model construction, the factors which influence the demand for water use will be found. This distinction has important implications for forecast water demand. From literature reviews, factors which affect the intensity of water use would be categorized as: (1) population; (2) economic and industrial development in the region; (3) public water supply rate; (4) amount of water use per capita, and (5) conservation behavior. Consequently, causal-loop diagrams and system structure flowchart among all variables can be recognized and established. The mathematical relationships among these variables will be formulated with the aid of historical data and validated by statistical process. Finally, the regional water demand forecasting model can be set up. As results show, the absolute error between recorded and estimated values of residential water use for different years are all less than 5%. For industrial water use, only the values of 1987 and 1991 are greater than 5%. All other major variables demonstrate satisfactory results. These results enhances the feasibility of applying SD model to the field of water demand forecasting. This model is possess of the peculiarity of flexible by adding new variables if needed without reconstructing the existing model. At the end of the study, selected water conservation strategies for both residential and industrial water use will be added to the model. The results reveal that from pessimistic point of view in the year of 2011, water demand will be reduced by 142.565 and 34.4 00 million cubic meters for residential and industrial water use, respectively and on the contrary, reduction of 475.218 and 416.700 million cubic meters respectively can be achieved.
Relation: NSC84-2211-E019-004
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/11770
Appears in Collections:[河海工程學系] 研究計畫

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