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题名: 巴拿馬運河擴建後船舶等候定價模式與海陸複合運輸選擇決策之研究
A Study on Modeling Ship Queuing Pricing and Choice Decision on Intermoal Transportation after the Expansion of Panama Canal
作者: 賴禎秀
贡献者: NTOU:Department of Merchant Marine
國立臺灣海洋大學:商船學系
关键词: 巴拿馬運河;排隊等候;階梯式等候收費;迴歸分析;複合運輸
Abstracttep toll scheme;regression analysis;intermodal transportation
日期: 2010-08
上传时间: 2011-06-28T07:28:23Z
出版者: 行政院國家科學委員會
摘要: 摘要:巴拿馬運河擴建工程將於2017 年完成,屆時將有更多船舶排隊等候通過巴 拿馬運河。為了減輕運河兩端入口錨區船舶排隊等候通過的現象,本研究計畫第 一年將船舶排隊等候通過巴拿馬運河所面臨的相關成本模式化,據此求出每艘通 過船舶之均衡成本,進而推導出適用於巴拿馬運河河道的最佳階梯式等候收費架 構,以減少船舶排隊等候時間。接著根據均衡成本守恆的原則,分析等候收費實 施後船舶到達巴拿馬運河錨區的分散效果以及到達錨區時刻的變動軌跡。第一年 的研究成果可提供巴拿馬運河管理決策單位一個有參考價值的等候定價手法,以 提升巴拿馬運河的經濟效益。 本研究計畫第二年是在未來巴拿馬運河擴建完成且實施等候定價之前提 下,探討越太平洋航線之船舶選擇全水路路線通過巴拿馬運河直航美東,或是選 擇海陸複合運輸(迷你陸橋)路線轉運美東之決策。首先以迴歸分析建構以上兩 條不同路線之總運送成本函數,接著找出這兩個運送成本的交點(臨界值),作 為航商路徑選擇的轉換點,成本最小的選擇原則將導致航商在臨界值之前與之後 的路徑選擇結果正好相反。第二年建構總運送成本函數以及分析航商路徑選擇的 方法與成果,希望能在海運經濟的學術研究與實務運作上有具體貢獻。
Abstract:Panama Canal expansion project will be completed in 2017. This project will bring more ships to queue for crossing the Panama Canal. In order to relieve ship queuing in front of the entries to Panama Canal, the 1st year of this research derives the ship’s equilibrium cost by modeling all ships’ direct and indirect queuing costs to cross the Panama Canal. Using the equilibrium cost, and then we can derive the optimal step toll scheme to reduce all ships’ queuing times. The 1st year of this research also derives the effects of the optimal step toll on all ships’ arrival time decentralizations and arrival time change decisions according to the permanent equilibrium cost principle. The above results provide a useful queuing pricing method for the Panama authority to improve economic efficiencies of Panama Canal. The background of the 2nd year research is that Panama Canal expansion project is completed and the queuing pricing to ships is implemented by the Panama authority. Then this research discusses the route choice decision between the All Water Route (Panama Canal) and Intermodal Transportation Route (Mini Land Bridge) for ships depart from Asia (Far East) via Pacific Ocean to the east coast of North America. This research first derives the total transportation cost functions to the two routes by Regression Analysis. Then the critical point of the two cost functions can be obtained as the switching point to the route choice decision. Based on the transportation cost minimization principle, the ship owner will choose the different cheaper route to the destination before and after the switching point. The author expects that the above results in the 2nd year research can make contributions to both academic researches and practical applications in marine economics.
關聯: NSC99-2410-H019-016
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/10157
显示于类别:[商船學系] 研究計畫

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