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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw:8080/ir/handle/987654321/10155

Title: 以證據推論方法為基礎的多屬性決策分析方法之發展
Development of a Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Using Evidential Reasoning
Authors: 翁順泰
Contributors: NTOU:Department of Merchant Marine
國立臺灣海洋大學:商船學系
Date: 2008-08
Issue Date: 2011-06-28T07:28:23Z
Abstract: 摘要:多屬性決策分析(multiple attribute decision-making analysis)問題常見於管理領域。這是由於判斷方案(alternatives)的標準(criteria)其屬性(attribute)的不同而造成。因此在進行決策分析時,導致每個方案的成效值 (performance rating) 並無法很精確的加以評估,因為其中可能會牽涉到人類行為的主觀性與不確定性。本計劃預計以證據推論(evidential reasoning)方法為基礎,建立一個多屬性決策分析模型。這是因為證據推論方法與其他多屬性決策分析方法最大的不同在於:其具有將不同屬性的主客觀的質化及量化的資訊與資料置於一屬性相同的平台架構下進行分析的能力。除此之外,在證據推論方法架構下,當有多位決策者進行決策分析時,由於每一位決策者對於每一個評估等級(evaluation grade)的理解不盡相同,而可能造成每一位決策者分析出來的風險控制方案執行優先順序不ㄧ致。而且當每一個風險控制方案其評估等級及伴隨的信賴度(belief degree)很接近時,這種現象將會更加明顯。本計劃旨在建立一套新的決策分析模型以解決評估標準的多屬性決策問題,且在多位決策者進行分析時,仍能提供信賴的結果,以增加該方法在決策分析領域的實用性。本計劃所建構出來的方法論將以一個港口安全決策分析作為研究試例,期能為海運界提供一套新的決策分析方法。
Abstract:Many real-world multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems are characterised with both quantitative and qualitative attributes. For instance, when evaluating Risk Control Options (RCOs), difficulties may be encountered due to the attribute nature of the defined criteria such as safety and cost. In this research, a decision-making model using the Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach will be proposed provided that RCOs have been identified. It is the technique aimed at solving the MADA problems. This is because of its capability of consistently modelling precise data and subjective judgment with uncertainty under a unified framework. However, a problem occurs when applying such a technique in circumstances where a decision-making project is evaluated by multiple experts and various utility appreciation arising from each expert exists when assessing each evaluation grade. This could result in an RCO or general attribute ranking order conflict between the experts. Such a conflict would become obvious if the evaluation grades and belief degrees obtained for each alternative or general attribute were close. The framework to be proposed in this research will be capable of solving such a difficulty. The framework will be demonstrated by a test case which considers the effects of the security, safety and human error reduction measures in ports.
Relation: NSC97-2410-H019-011-MY2
URI: http://ntour.ntou.edu.tw/ir/handle/987654321/10155
Appears in Collections:[商船學系] 研究計畫

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